In the first three quarters, the overall domestic macroeconomy performed well, not only achieving the goal of a soft economic landing, but also continuing to maintain a sound monetary policy and the full implementation of structural adjustment policies, the GDP growth rate rebounded slightly. Statistics show that in August 2017, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year in real terms. From January to August, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year. On the whole, the production growth rate of high-energy-consuming manufacturing has continued to fall, but high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing have maintained relatively rapid growth, and related investment has also accelerated to emerging industries. The growth rate of Shuangchuang’s investment continues to increase. With the industrial transformation and upgrading, China’s economy is accelerating the conversion of new and old momentum. In the chemical industry, due to the full implementation of the specific measures of the environmental protection supervision policy and the full clearance of backward production capacity, the prosperity of some industries has rebounded. In addition, the demand in emerging fields has increased significantly, especially the coal and steel industries in the first half of the The company’s profitability and profitability have been continuously revised. The bull market created by black products in the first half of the year has caused a collective turnaround in the industry to win a good situation. With the support of the destocking cycle, the company’s operating conditions have been improved. Overall improvement. However, in the peak season for the traditional demand of the Golden, Nine, and Silver, 10 chemical industries, the market trend is not satisfactory. As domestic demand growth has no obvious bright spots, and the environmental protection policy storm has subsided, the operating rate of some industries has gradually recovered and even reached historical highs, but the actual consumption has not shown a significant amount There are signs of growth, so black products bear the brunt of a sharp dive, but the industry operating rate is still at a high level, and it is likely to enter the destocking cycle again in the future. Therefore, the overheating phenomenon of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, which is not conducive to the clearing of outdated production capacity, and is likely to lead to the failure of the stage of supply-side structural adjustment. Therefore, in the second half of the year, the chemical industry as a whole is in a "cooling" stage, and the falsely high bubbles generated by various "conceptual" speculations will be digested by the market itself. From the perspective of the external environment, the U.S. balance sheet contraction is expected to continue to strengthen, but the actual economic recovery momentum is still weak, and the risk of shocks to emerging economies still exists. Other major foreign trade areas such as Europe are facing an exit from the monetary easing cycle, coupled with trade protectionist barriers. The global spread will continue to put pressure on domestic and foreign exports, and the growth rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to operate at the bottom of the L-shape, and the emerging sectors are not enough to support effective demand and can occupy a major proportion. The structural imbalance in the traditional sectors is difficult to effectively reverse in the short term. The specific industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial value-added data and it is likely to appear weak. In the absence of new kinetic energy and the emergence of bright spots in consumption growth, the investment growth rate of the chemical industry will continue to decline and is likely to continue a negative growth situation. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the center of gravity of the chemical product market will drop to seek bottom support, and it is likely that the black series will continue to be led. In addition, the overall destocking cycle is expected to be relatively prolonged, and the expected cyclical decline in the benefits of enterprises in the industry, and the price bubble and falsely high profit margins in some industries will return rationally and be effectively compressed.

Environmental protection and strong winds, such as limited production during the heating season, have hit steel, chemical, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries again. Industry insiders believe that the steel market will be another turmoil at the end of the year, and prices may continue to push up. The staggered production of cement may lead to negative growth in output in 2017, while the chemical industry is showing a polarization trend. The scattered small chemical plants and small product companies will be the focus of environmental protection supervision. The elimination of these companies will be eliminated. In the long run, it is good for the entire industry. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the reform of the ecological civilization system has been placed in a prominent position in the comprehensive deepening of reforms. In September 2015, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the Reform of Ecological Civilization System", and the design of the top-level system in the form of "1+N" began. Since then, the previous central deep restructuring meetings have reviewed and approved a series of supporting policy documents related to the reform of ecological civilization. Since the beginning of this year, environmental protection related policies such as the 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas have been introduced intensively. At the same time, the central environmental protection supervision has achieved full coverage of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and has promoted the resolution of a large number of prominent environmental problems . Below this, the place also moved. Hebei Province, a major iron and steel province, proposed that Baoding, Langfang, and Zhangjiakou will build "steel-free cities", Zhangjiakou will basically achieve "mine-free cities", and Zhangjiakou, Langfang, Baoding, and Hengshui will strive to achieve "coke-free cities." "A number of environmental protection policies are superimposed, and there are very few steel production enterprises left." Jinlianchuang Metal Industry Editor-in-Chief Yi Yi introduced to the reporter of "Economic Information Daily". However, the strong wind of environmental protection is still behind. According to the 2017 Work Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas, the heating season of "2+26" urban industrial enterprises will be staggered. The cement and foundry industries have all-out staggered production. Except for the tasks of people’s livelihood, all the heating seasons have staggered production. From September 15th, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has launched atmospheric inspections on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in autumn and winter. This inspection is aimed at companies and governments participating in the "2+26" urban air pollution control in autumn and winter. Yiyi believes that the steel market will be another turmoil at the end of the year, and prices may continue to push up. Taking the price of rebar as an example, there will still be 200-300 yuan/ton upward space in the later period. But chase the rise with caution. Haitong Securities analyst Jiang Chao said that the output of 28 cities in 2016 accounted for one-fifth of the country's output, and the national cement output in the first July of 2017 only increased by 0.3% year-on-year, so peak production may lead to negative growth in 2017. From the perspective of the chemical industry, Jinxian Energy and Chemical Industry Editor-in-Chief Wang Zhenxian said that my country's chemical companies are currently polarizing. The production of major bulk chemicals is concentrated in the hands of large private enterprises such as three barrels of oil and local refineries. The supporting environmental protection measures of these enterprises are generally relatively complete. Due to the large impact on the local economy and society, the impact of environmental protection supervision is limited. On the other hand, there are a large number of scattered small chemical factories and small product enterprises, and there is a long-term lack of supervision. This part of enterprises will be the focus of environmental protection supervision. Environmental supervision has been positive for chemical companies for a long time, and the policy threshold can eliminate some relatively inefficient small companies.   related news Strengthen environmental protection rectification, steel deep processing industry is "reducing volume adjustment"2017-09-22 09:41 The 2017 International Forum on Sustainable Development of Iron and Steel Coal Chemical Industry and the Inaugural Conference of "Sustainable Development Think Tank" was grandly held in Beijing 2017-09-19 17:33 "Debt-to-equity swap" only accounts for 4%. What is the difficulty of deleveraging in the steel industry 2017-09-16 20:41

Last week (9.18~9.22) a total of 135 listed companies in the two cities disclosed their investigations. From the perspective of industry distribution, the surveyed companies are mainly concentrated in the electronics, chemical, medical and biological industries. According to industry classification, the companies surveyed last week were mainly concentrated in the three major industries of electronics, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals and biology, and the number of companies involved were 23, 15 and 13 respectively. In the last week (9.18~9.22), a total of 135 listed companies in the two cities disclosed their investigations. From the perspective of industry distribution, the surveyed companies are mainly concentrated in the electronics, chemical, medical and biological industries. According to industry classification, the companies surveyed last week were mainly concentrated in the three major industries of electronics, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals and biology, and the number of companies involved were 23, 15 and 13 respectively. The 12 electronic industry companies surveyed predicted the first three quarters: In the chemical industry, Shanghai Securities analyst Shao Rui pointed out in his industry research report on September 19, “The chemical industry is not only used in traditional industries, Emerging fields such as new materials are also indispensable. In the past, many high-tech industries were monopolized by foreign-funded enterprises. With the advancement of domestic technology, the gradual transfer of emerging industries to the domestic downstream and mergers and acquisitions, etc. The field of new materials is developing rapidly. Investors can lay out industries with strong performance certainty. TFT, adhesives, printing consumables, ceramic materials, lithium battery materials, functional films, etc. all have layout value." In terms of individual stocks, Gosuncn has received 49 institutions in total last week, ranking first; Xinhecheng has received 46 institutions, ranking second; Nasda received 37 institution surveys, ranking third. At the research meeting of Gosuncn, the relevant person in charge revealed that the company and Huawei are cooperating in some businesses and have signed a cooperation agreement. Huawei recognizes the company’s three-dimensional cloud defense system. Currently, the three-dimensional cloud defense system has been used in some parts of the company Cooperation projects. In addition, with regard to the future development plan of the Internet of Vehicles business, the relevant person in charge of Gao Xinxing pointed out that the Internet of Vehicles is an area with relatively mature development, relatively large market, and relatively clear profit model in the sub-field of the Internet of Things. Gosuncn will mainly use hardware as the carrier and carry a software platform. The business prospects of this business will be very impressive. In terms of the types of research institutions, securities firms have the strongest research interest, participating in the research of 108 companies; public funds participated in the research of 58 companies, ranking second; Sunshine Private Equity participated in the research of 51 companies, ranking third; overseas institutions and insurance companies were respectively Participated in the survey of 31 and 33 listed companies. In terms of specific institutions, private equity Star Stone Investment investigated the clean environment, Heju Investment investigated Xinhecheng, Qianhe Capital investigated China Media Holdings, Supply and Marketing Daji, and Chongyang Investment investigated Goldwind Technology, Wen's Hecheng, Zhuque Investment researched Jingrui shares and New Times; for public funds, Bosera researched Ninestar, Gosuncn, Guangwei Composites, and Huitianfu researched Anhui Technology, Guangwei Composites, and Harvest Research With Huayi Brothers and Salt Lake, E Fund investigated Wen's shares, Gosuncn and Bank of Hangzhou; in terms of overseas institutions, Abu Dhabi Investment Bureau investigated BOE A and Rongzhilian, and Allianz Investment investigated Helitai and Zhongbai Group. , Deutsche Securities researched Costa and Shinwanda, Morgan Stanley researched Shinwanda, Oupai Home, Hao Laike, the Central Bank of Norway researched GEM and Genre Voneng, and Nomura Securities researched Goldwind. , Xinwangda, Credit Suisse researched Oppen Home and Haolaike. (Original title: The institution focused on investigating electronics, chemical, pharmaceuticals and biology last week) (Editor in charge: DF370)